xfinity championship race

We've talked so much about Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric this season, but as we close the year in Phoenix, Justin Allgaier is the clear favorite to me to win this championship. He is really, really strong at short, flat tracks and neither Briscoe nor Cindric have shown a whole lot at those tracks. Let's go through some of the details:

• Justin Allgaier - In the last three short, flat track races, he has won twice and finished 2nd the other time. At Phoenix earlier this year, he led 51 laps and ran 20 fastest laps. He also won the Phoenix race last Fall -- leading over 80 laps and running over 40 fastest laps -- beating a field that included Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. Most are comparing Phoenix most closely to Richmond and Allgaier clearly had the best car in both Richmond races earlier this season. The only blemish is that he has some history of making mistakes or running into bad luck at critical times. 
• Chase Briscoe - He has no Top 5 finishes and a total of 20 laps led in the four races at short, flat tracks this season. Likewise, in three Phoenix races, he has no Top 5 finishes and a total of 14 laps led. Briscoe's car and performance are better than ever this season, so it's certainly possible he does lead or dominate a portion of this race. And he's got a great pit crew, so it's possible he can steal the lead off pit road. But the fact is we've yet to any kind of dominating performance like that at this type of track.
• Austin Cindric - In four races with the Penske team at Phoenix, Cindric has high finishes of 4th and 5th. He's led a total of 25 laps in those four races. At the short, flat tracks this season, Cindric has only one Top 5 finish - but he did lead 60+ laps at Richmond and 40+ laps at Martinsville. 
• Ross Chastain - In the last three short, flat track races, Chastain has finished in the Top 5 every time, led at least 30 laps in each race and run about 20 fastest laps in each race. He's very good at this type of track and Kaulig brings good cars. One concern is how many resources were focused on Justin Haley's car since he's running for the championship and Chastain is not. I have no doubt Chastain will not shy away from battling the championship contenders and will get in front and lead if he has the car to do so. But I'd feel much better about this play if he was still in the running for the championship.
• Harrison Burton - He's on fire right now -- winning the last two races. He also finished 2nd at Phoenix earlier this year and won last week at a short, flat track. 
• Daniel Hemric - Quietly, the #8 car is closing the season really strong. It has five Top 5 finishes in the last eight races -- including a 2nd and 3rd place finish from Hemric. He is also pretty good at Phoenix, showing strong results from his earlier Xfinity Series stint at RCR and an 11th place finish in the Cup Series last year. Starting 18th, he has the potential to give you +10 position difference and put up a really strong score.

Here are some value options to focus on:

• Matt Mills - Too cheap at near minimum $4,800. He's had some of his strongest runs at short, flat tracks this season. This likely isn't a Top 20 car, but he should get you +5-8 position difference if there are no issues. And that's a pretty big if because this car is not the most reliable. But for $4,800 with nowhere to go but up, it opens a lot of doors for the rest of your roster.
• David Starr - Back in the #07, where he's had some good runs this year but also some mechanical failures. It's worrisome that this team had another mechanical issue at the beginning of last week's race on the heals of a blown engine the week prior. Once they fixed the deal last week, though, the car had good speed as expected. If there are no issues, Starr should press for a Top 20 and lead lap finish.
• J.J. Yeley - He's not all that cheap, but he's a real strong position difference play. He's in the #61 MBM car, which is also not all that reliable. But he has a lead sponsor paying for this ride so he should have a good allotment of tires and be good to go for the entire race. With some luck, he might push for a Top 20, but think something around 25th to be safe. With that somewhat limited upside, he's not a must have at this price, but it's a very high floor and there are not a lot of other great options.
• Kyle Weatherman/Bailey Currey - The Mike Harmon cars are some of the least reliable in the Series. If you can stomach that risk, these guys both have +10 position difference potential. I usually can't bring myself to use them in cash games, but some don't mind the risk. And they're starting 31st and 33rd (out of let's say 36 cars because the #66 car is a start and park) so it's not like they'll totally kill your lineup with - position difference if something does go wrong.
• B.J. McLeod - Not a bad play but recognize there's limited upside here. Maybe +5 position difference on his best day. 
• C.J. McLaughlin and Jessie Iwuji will be really slow. They don't have much chance of moving up very far without a really big number of other cars dropping out. They are far too expensive for what they offer.