xfinity road america

Saturday AM Update:  Looking back at last year, 11 was the most laps led and 7 was the most fastest laps.  That added up to a grand total of 6.25 DK points.  In 2016, it was 24 laps led and 15 fastest laps for 13.5 DK points.  In 2015, it was 23 laps led and 14 fastest laps for 12.75 DK points.  So, again, you do not need a Dominator to win this week.  You want solid guys (and maybe a gal) from top to bottom with a good outlook on finishing position and positive position difference.

Nothing much changes to my initial list after Friday practice.  I still like them to varying degrees.  I feel real good about Allgaier and Gaughan.  I also feel pretty secure in using Conor Daly in any format.  He ran a lot of laps in final practice and put on new tires near the end of the practice and ran a really strong lap.  He also got shafted by his sponsor, so may have some additional motivation to put on a good showing in the race.

I will add Justin Marks, Austin Cindric and JD Davison to the watch list.  They all had real good speed and are with strong teams.  Will all depend where they qualify.  Finally, add Katherine Legge as a cheaper option at $6,000.  She was running well at Mid Ohio until she had a motor issue.  She was running pretty well in practice today too until Tyler Reddick hit her.  There was some damage, but it didn't look like anything that would impact their race.  Depending on qualifying spot, she could provide strong value.

Some notes to help you build lineups for Saturday's Xfinity Series race at Road America.  The track is over 4 miles long, so it's only 45 laps that make up the 180 mile race.  Only 11.25 total points out there for laps led and 22.5 points for fastest laps.  Finishing position and position difference will be most important this week.

There's a chance for rain both Friday and Saturday with the greater chance looking like Friday.  The most likely scenario is a wet track Friday and dry track for the race Saturday.  That would really favor the series regulars who have done multiple road course races here and this year.  It would also really hurt guys like Bill Elliott, Conor Daly, etc. who need practice time in race conditions since they're not accustomed to these cars.

• I've pushed Justin Allgaier all year on road courses and I will again this week.  He doesn't usually qualify in the Top 5, but he tends to finish there.  Won the last road course race two weeks ago at Mid Ohio.  And finished 3rd (behind Logano and Allmendinger) the week before that at Watkins Glen.
• Cole Custer has three straight Top 8 finishes on road courses and I expect him in the Top 5 or so on Saturday.
• Daniel Hemric is generally solid at road courses.  In 5 road course races in the Xfinity series, he had 2 Top 5s another Top 10 and nothing worse than a 15th and 16th place finish.  Very high floor with race winning upside -- the perfect combination for a cash game pending his starting spot.
• Brendan Gaughan is just running a few races this year.  He finished 12th at Mid Ohio.  When he was a series regular the last two years, he finished in the Top 10 at all six road course races.  A relative bargain at the $8,700 salary.
• Matt Tifft at $8,500 also looks like a good value.  He's finished in the Top 5 in 3 of the last 4 road course races -- but the other finish was a 37th place disaster.
• Ryan Reed at $8,300 could be a good play as well.  He's finished 8th and 10th at the two road course races this year.  He tends to not qualify great, so that helps limit his downside and increase his upside for us.
• Brandon Jones is with a great team and has a great salary at $8,100.  But his results have not been so great at the road courses.  He comes into play for me if he qualifies poorly so I wanted to include him in the list.
• Andy Lally is a very solid road course specialist.  He finished 15th at Mid Ohio this year.  In the last two seasons, he finished 7th and 5th in races at Mid Ohio.  Definitely in play if he does not qualify in the Top 10.
• Conor Daly is a very good driver doing some races in the IndyCar series this year.  He has a lot of road course experience, but little experience in a stock car.  Probably a tournament only play, but could creep into the cash game picture if he gets some decent practice time on Friday and if he doesn't qualify too well.
• Michael Annett is your classic cash game guy.  He qualifies like crap but tends to run pretty well in these road course races.   He's finished 17th (+8 position difference) and 18th (+6 position difference) in the two road course races this season.
• Alex Labbe is a rookie in the series, but has finished 19th and 9th with a total +6 position difference in the two road course races this year.  At $6,600, he's a great cheaper option provided he doesn't qualify too well.
• Other even cheaper options on the radar:  David Starr, Ryan Ellis, Spencer Boyd and Chad Finchum.
• Just to cover the topic, I really don't have any interest in Bill Elliott.  It's a great story I guess, but he's been out of the sport for too long.  And he's priced high enough that there are very likely to be several better options at or below his salary.

GL on Saturday.  Depending on what happens in practice on Friday, I may post a brief update Friday night/Saturday morning.