I've got some thoughts on the Darlington Cup race (other than play Chase Elliott in cash games) that I'll post late on Saturday night, so check in before you finalize your lineups for Sunday's race. 

Cup Notes

• For cash games, we've got a good number of guys starting 30th on back with good cars and track history. I don't love starting guys this far back because if they struggle on the first run of the day and it goes long, they do risk going down a lap. But all of these guys have a good chance of passing some of the weaker entries that happened to qualify ahead of them on Saturday.
  • Chase Elliott leads the way in this group. Getting a Hendrick car starting 31st for under $10k is close to a must play in cash games. I'd be OK fading him in tournaments because he probably needs an alternate strategy and lucky caution to really go off and finish up front with laps led.
    
  • Josh Berry and Noah Gragson are teammates in pretty similar situations. Gragson in particular catches my eye because he had a ton of success at Darlington in the Xfinity series and he really performs well at these old, worn out surfaces where riding the wall can be the fastest way around (see Homestead). Berry was never quite as strong in the Xfinity series so I don't think he has quite the same upside as Gragson, but he's also $500 cheaper so he's still certainly in play.
  • Eric Jones always seems to have speed at Darlington so he's definitely an option along the lines of Berry and Gragson. He wasn't great in practice though and I've got some concern about how his back holds up over what will be a long and grueling race on Sunday.
  • Harrison Burton is a dart throw punt play. He wrecked out of last year's Fall race at Darlington but had three decent finishes (6th, 21st and 14th) before that. 
• I'm still working through who I want as more expensive lap leader/race winner types. There are a lot of good options there with Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney all under consideration. 

Notes for the Cup Series race will be posted late Saturday night. Nothing for the Trucks with same day qualifying.

Cup Series Notes

• William Byron starting 36th is obviously a great play in all formats. He was arguably the best car in practice, ranking 1st or 2nd in all longer run categories.
• I love both Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick starting 14th and 15th, respectively. Hamlin's timing in practice got better the longer the run and he ended up 1st in 25-lap average. Reddick has been the fastest car at 1.5 mile tracks this year - finishing 2nd (3rd in green flag speed) at Las Vegas and 4th (1st in green flag speed) at Texas. Both have the potential to lead laps and win the race.
• Kyle Larson is always in play and starts 4th which gives him a decent shot to lead laps early in the race. I do question why he didn't do a really long run in practice - even though his 10-lap and 15-lap speeds were 2nd and 1st, respectively. He won the Las Vegas race and put up 110 DK points that day at what is the best comp track to Kansas that they've run so far this year.
• Bubba Wallace has a win at Kansas and has been awfully fast the last three races here. He starts 23rd, so gives you a good +15 position difference upside. There's always some volatility with Bubba, so I like him better in tournaments than cash games but he's definitely usable in either format.
• I don't know what to do with Ryan Blaney starting 26th. Penske as a whole was really bad in practice so it's not like he can just flip to a teammates set up to gain some speed. Unless they can find a way to flip the race through strategy and a timely caution, I just don't see the upside to justify using him in tournaments. His safe floor and reasonable salary does leave him in play for cash games.
• Brad Keselowski starts 30th at a sub-$8k price tag, so there's a lot to like there. He was one of only three cars to do a 30-lap run in practice and that tends to signal he was generally happy with the car. Seems like a cash game lock to me.
• Choose your own adventure in the $5k and $6k range.
  • I will say Justin Haley is a reasonable punt at near minimum salary. Not sure why he's cheaper than Harrison Burton and Riley Herbst, among a few others.
  • Be cautious with Daniel Hemric. He lucked into a T20 at Texas despite being 34th in green flag speed because the caution came out at the right time for him. He's playable but temper expectations. 
  • I kind of like Ryan Preece but his price is getting up there a little bit higher than I'd like. If you have the room, fine, but I'd prioritize getting the guys you want at the top of your lineup. 
• Martin Truex and Alex Bowman are two lower owned guys that could make good tournament pivots off more popular guys right next to them on the salary chart.

Planning to cover both races. Xfinity notes up late Friday night and Cup notes up late Saturday night. Thanks for following.

Xfinity Notes (posted Friday night) -

• Thinking through a cash game lineup, I want to start with Justin Allgaier and Josh Williams. Allgaier is easily the best Xfinity Series driver at Dover over the long term with Top 3 finishes in nine of the last ten Dover races dating back to 2017. There's simply no one to trust more here. As for Williams, he was way off base on Friday but Kaulig has generally been fine at Dover and his teammate AJ Allmendinger looked to have a very competitive long run car in practice. So they should be able to get things going in the right direction and get at least a T20 finish if they stay out of trouble.
• After that, I think the key decision is whether to go up for a second potential dominator -- probably Ryan Truex -- or go for more position difference with a guy like Sam Mayer, starting 20th. At this moment, I lean Truex, who won both stages and the race here last year (from the same 12th starting spot). The upside is huge with Truex considering he led over 100 laps here last year. The downside is you might have to compromise a bit on your last lineup spot.
• From there, I think you've got several excellent value plays from top tier teams in the $8k and $7k ranges. And round things out with whoever else you can fit in that seems to have some position difference ability for cheap.
  
• Austin Hill, Chandler Smith and Riley Herbst are all likely to be lower owned guys that have a clear path to leading laps and scoring a lot of dominator points. All are likely too risky for cash games, but make really good tournament pivots.

Good luck!

As typical, I don't have a whole lot to say about plate track races. For cash games, the best formula is simply to start good cars starting in the back. There are plenty of solid options starting 30th on back so I don't see any reason to reach higher than that. I'm sure some will go up to guys in the 20s like Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski. I can't really say those are bad plays -- but they do add a whole lot of risk. We saw it Saturday in the Xfinity race where Brandon Jones was over owned starting 23rd. He was looking great until he wasn't. He got clipped from behind while minding his own business and was out of the race with negative DK points. I want to try to avoid those negative points at all costs.

I'll be posting my DFS notes for the Cup Series race late Saturday night. 

Cup Notes

• For cash games, I have to think a lot of lineups start with Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and Ricky Stenhouse. I've got no issues with any of them for cash games. I would probably lean towards fading Busch in some tournaments because I think he has somewhat limited upside in the backup car.
  
• From there, the question is whether you want to go for a second potential dominator (like Tyler Reddick or William Byron) or stay more balanced with position difference combos (like Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski).
  
  • Personally, I really like Reddick here given his past speed at Texas and his speed earlier this year at Las Vegas, which is easily the best comp to Texas from this season. He was also clearly a Top 3 car in Saturday practice.
    
  • That said, Keselowski has five straight Top 10 finishes at Texas and is typically the type of mistake free option we love for cash games. His $8200 price is a bargain for the rock solid performance you typically get from him. And Elliott is coming on as of late two straight T5 finishes.
    
  • I don't think you can really go wrong either way. Writing this Saturday night, I lean slightly the second dominator way, but it's real close and will go down to the wire.
    
• Options to fill in after that include Eric Jones, Josh Berry or, if absolutely necessary, a true punt like Daniel Hemric.
  

​Good luck everyone! ​​

Easter and Spring Break weekends = Family Time so I won't have any written content for the next two races. After that I'm planning on five straight full weekends all the way up to the All Star race in mid-May. Happy Easter to those who celebrate and good luck to all the next two weeks.

Back at it here for COTA. I'll have some Truck and Xfinity notes late Friday night and Cup late Saturday night. Good luck this weekend!

Cup (posted Saturday night) - ​QUICK SUNDAY NOTE - AJ AND SVG SEEM REALLY POPULAR SO I'D BOOST THEM UP IN CASH GAMES OVER SOMEONE LIKE BLANEY.
Not going to lie - It was a rough Saturday with the last lap penalties. I was sitting on small wins in both races at the checkered flag only to fall off a cliff when Matt Crafton and SVG were given 30 second post-race penalties for cutting corners on the last lap. NASCAR really needs to look at how to best police cutting corners because the penalty seems way too harsh and it seems totally arbitrary to allow them to cut every corner on the course except through the 3-4-5 complex. On to my Cup race notes:

• Joey Logano is my #1 play for cash games given the combination of price and starting spot. His practice times weren't great, but they were Top 20 times and if he can back that up in the race, he'll easily hit 5x his salary.
• Michael McDowell is in a similar position. He's finished 13th or better in all three COTA races and has finished 13th or better in nine of the last twelve road/street course races overall. He's fairly priced and has a lot of upside from the 27th starting spot.
• Ryan Blaney is another one starting 28th. He threw up a few decent practice laps and is probably just too cheap for where he starts.
• There are so many great cars and drivers starting at the front. My issue with them is who to play? Byron, Gibbs, and Bell were arguably the most impressive cars in practice and Reddick absolutely blew away the field here last year and was just fine in practice as well. I have no problem using any of them. But we saw in the Xfinity race how quickly it can go South for even a dominant car (Allmendinger and SVG).
  • All this leaves me thinking the best play up top for cash games might be Kyle Larson. Starts 15th, so gives some position difference upside and was nearly as strong in practice. It's a really tough call on this one and there's no one right answer between these guys.
  • Also I'm not going to argue with anyone who wants to use AJ or SVG again on Sunday. They're both damn good at this kind of racing. But I think it'd leave them for tournaments given the numerous other options that might be a bit more reliable.
• Chris Buescher has just been crazy consistent at road courses. He's finished 11th or better in eleven of the last twelve road/street course races. He's probably outperforming his speed there a little bit but whatever he's doing is right.
• Alex Bowman is another solid play considering that he's finished 3rd, 2nd and 8th in his three COTA races. He had some very strong practice laps so is a solid bet for another good finish here on Sunday.
• Brad Keselowski, Eric Jones and Noah Gragson are all tempting. They are all so cheap and start so far back that they can really only go forward. But all of their practice times were pretty bad and I really don't see any of them challenging to break to the Top 20. I would definitely stay away in tournaments given the lack of upside.
• Ross Chastain and Todd Gilliland are two guys would will probably be lower owned that I might be overweight on in tournaments.

Trucks (posted Friday night)

• Ben Rhodes is the #1 play in all formats. He's got a very solid road course history, including Top 10 finishes in all three COTA races. With how few laps there are in the race here, the position difference points are even more crucial and Rhodes should be 20+ in that department.
• Connor Zilisch is the real deal obviously. He's off to an awesome start in the IMSA series and was easily the most impressive on Friday, setting multiple track records. Something really major would have to go wrong for him to not lead laps and finish in the Top 5 on Saturday. A bargain at $9,200.
• Rajah Caruth is badly mispriced IMO at only $7,200. There's risk starting 11th, but he looked strong in practice running laps clearly inside the Top 10 on speed. He mentioned learning a lot from his teammate Zilisch and sim work for the road courses on Friday. 
• Tyler Ankrum has finished 3rd, 7th and 4th in his three COTA races and he's arguably in the best truck of his career. He has some position difference upside starting 12th and his practice lap times put him squarely in the Top 6-8 trucks.
• Matt Crafton, Marco Andretti and Jake Garcia are all seemingly safe floor plays with some room to move forward. There are some warning flags though and I don't see much upside for any of them. Crafton has never been strong at the road courses and wasn't great in practice. Andretti was pretty far off the pace in practice and is in a really questionable truck. And Garcia, too, hasn't been his best at road courses. His practice times were well off the pace as well. If I had to choose, I'd go Crafton, Garcia and then Andretti.
• Ty Dillon and Stefan Parsons are two guys in the same general price range starting a little further forward that had much better practice sessions on Friday.
• My favorite tournament plays are probably Corey Heim and Jack Hawksworth. If Zilisch doesn't dominate, it will likely be Heim -- or both. Hawksworth is a very accomplished Lexus driver in the IMSA series and probably has more road course laps then the rest of the field combined. It wouldn't shock me to see him get stronger as the race goes on and contend for a Top 3 finish.

​Xfinity (posted Friday night)

• How could you not like the guys at the top. Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger are all awesome, were all great in practice and are all great plays. Here are two things that stick with me on this one -- (1) there is no driver I trust more to bring home a Top 5 in a Xfinity road course race then AJ Allmendinger; and (2) SVG got faster every lap he ran in practice and ended the session with the fastest lap run by anyone.
• Anthony Alfredo looks like a really safe PD play to me. He got a flat tire before he even ran a practice lap but they fully expect the car to be ready to go for Saturday. He said he just did a shakedown lap during qualifying to make sure everything was OK on the car. He's finished 13th and 16th in two COTA races and I'd look for another Top 20 here.
• Riley Herbst and JH Nemechek weren't necessarily mispriced coming into the weekend, but they probably are now given their starting positions. Neither is going to win or even really compete for a Top 5, but a 8th-12th place finish would be a great return for their price. I'd be fine fading them in tournaments because I think the upside is somewhat limited, but they are really strong cash game plays to me.
• Alex Labbe is a really good road course racer, but I question the quality of the car.
• Ryan Sieg tends to find a way to finish better then he runs at the road courses, but he is on the risky side.
• Kyle Weatherman is a really strong punt play who has had some surprisingly solid road course finishes in lesser cars.
• I like Ed Jones as a cheaper play in tournaments only. Ed has a lot of road course experience from IMSA and IndyCar and is running in a solid Sam Hunt Racing car this weekend. Similar to SVG, he got faster with each practice lap and ended up running a really competitive lap to end the session.

No notes this weekend. Been sick, so a little unprepared this week.

Cup Series Notes will be posted late Saturday night--

Cash Games

• Have to start with Denny Hamlin here. The Fox broadcast documented how important it is to sit on the pole here and have the #1 pit stall. It's simply a huge advantage on track and in pit lane. At a track where passing is so difficult, this provides a solid floor that we rarely have for drivers starting on pole. Finally, Hamlin was very solid on a long run in practice so there's not a huge fear that he drops way back in the field absent an incident.
• Josh Berry, Corey LaJoie and Austin Cindric are all in play because they start 36th, 35th and 34th, respectively. Berry and Cindric have both shown decent speed throughout the weekend, so it's a surprise to see them starting so far back. Not sure what happened to slow down Cindric so much in qualifying. For Berry, he had a pretty good lap going but spun coming to the checkered flag. LaJoie has struggled this weekend but the price and starting spot are still attractive.
  
• After this, a lot of things are on the table. Here are a few good options--
  
  • Looking at the practice times, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain had the best long runs of 15 - 20 consecutive laps. Bell, in particular, was about .1/second per lap better over the 20 lap and 25 lap marks. I think they all come in at fairly reasonable salaries and wouldn't say any of them is a bad play.
    
  • The RCR cars of Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon start 31st and 30th, respectively. It's really hard to imagine them going anywhere but up from those starting spots. That said, they were both well off the pace in practice and couldn't complete a 20 lap run at all. So, while they have a solid high floor, I really don't see any upside in playing them absent some kind of Xfinity style Big One that takes out 10 cars in front of them.
    
  • Brad Keselowski (18th) and Alex Bowman (25th) are two others I could see getting interest. Neither has a great track history at Phoenix nor did either of them show great speed in practice. I'd say a 12th-15th kind of day would be a relative success for them.
    

Tournament Pivots

• Martin Truex, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Chris Buescher are all guys I can see as large field tournament pivots coming in at under 20% ownership.
  
• All three of Truex, Byron and Elliott have won here at Phoenix within the past six races and could surprise to lead laps at some point in the race. With on track passing so difficult, they have a huge advantage starting with prime track position.
  
• Buescher finished 5th here in the Fall and I can see him coming in at a very low ownership with Logano and Busch not too far above him and Keselowski right below him.
• Ryan Preece is an option to get off the Josh Berry chalk. He finished 14th and 12th here last year in a very down year for SHR. He's also at his best on the shorter, flatter tracks.

GL

Looking forward to a race weekend with practice and a traditional 1.5 mile track that has offered some really good racing in recent years. Will have Xfinity notes on Friday night and Cup notes on Saturday night.

Cup DFS Notes

• If practice times mean anything, this race is going to be a 2-man show between Kyle Larson and William Byron. If anyone is going to crash that party, it's Tyler Reddick. Those three were easily the Top 3 in practice and it wasn't particularly close.
• I'm guessing a lot of mid-range ownership goes to Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman. They all seem like reasonable cash game plays to me. I'm playing Bubba Wallace in at least one tournament lineup to get off the chalk in this range. He was just behind Reddick on the practice chart and he's had a few good runs at fast, low wear tracks (like Kansas and Las Vegas). And just imagine the story if he and Rajah Caruth were to win in the same weekend.
• Preece and Gragson should get most of the attention in the bottom range. I could see going down to Haley if you need to money to pay for your dominators.
• Martin Truex -125 to finish T10. Finished T10 at Las Vegas 9 out of the last 10 races. Starts 7th and showed enough practice speed to stay there.

Xfinity DFS Notes

• Don't love the slate for cash games because of the massive chalk starting in the rear. Let's go through them--
  • Justin Allgaier - Abandoned the Q run after getting a flat tire. He starts 36th and will be mega chalk for cash games. Got to play him. He was also very fast in practice with the best 10-lap, 15-lap and 20-lap averages.
  • Anthony Alfredo - Also had a flat tire. His was during practice and he hit the wall hard. He'll be going to a back up car, which is the team's Phoenix car according to his Twitter account. That probably caps his upside some, but he's still a strong cash game play at the salary and 37th starting spot. I would look to pivot off him in larger tournaments.
  • Joey Gase - Had his Q time disallowed because they forgot (?) to tape off a duct on their Q run. I don't think he has a ton of upside but he starts dead last and should be able to overtake a few cars and finish ahead of those who wreck out as well. Cheap enough to work as a punt play.
  • Cole Custer - Best short run speed on Friday and was 2nd to Allgaier in the long run averages as well. He and his teammate Riley Herbst combined to lead 165 of 200 laps here last Fall and they both look strong once again. Like Custer starting from the pole here which, I believe, gives him the first pit stall as well since it was not same day qualifying. [Correction - The 2 has the #1 pit stall. Custer will have it next race.]
  • JHN - I could also see going the JHN route over Custer to be more conservative. Figure JHN will have the car to finish in the Top 5 and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he leads at some point. Xfinity races can get crazy at times, so I can't fault anyone for going this route. This decision might come down to the wire for me.
• Some more risky plays more suited for tournaments--
  • Jeb Burton - Pretty cheap and he was really solid at the 1.5 mile tracks last year
  • Van Gisbergen - Too risky for cash games with his lack of experience. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if he starts off slow and is then able to move up as the race goes on and he gets more comfortable.
  • Riley Herbst - Won and dominated the last race here. Not a crazy cash game play either.
  • AJ Allmendinger - Has also won here out of nowhere. And might be the odd man out ownership wise with more popular options (Chandler Smith, Austin Hill and Aric Almirola) all around him.

​